Daniel McAdams returns to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Media coverage of the situation is absolutely abysmal and cartoonish, taking the role of stenographers for the intelligence community. The current crisis was precipitated by U.S. interventionism in the form of the 2014 Orange color revolution. Russia has a right to be concerned about existential issues and having Ukraine in NATO would objectively raise a serious concern for Moscow, especially in light of an openly hostile West. Blinken did his best Colin Powell presentation at the UN (e.g. Iraq WMDs) and there is a huge danger a false flag could lead to hostilities. This could be the beginning of the end for NATO. We’re seeing the tail end of the U.S. Empire.
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TRANSCRIPT
Geopolitics & Empire:
The Geopolitics & Empire Podcast is joined once again by Daniel McAdams, who is the Executive Director of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. We’ll be talking foreign policy in US, Russia, Ukraine, World War III. It’s been about two years since we last spoke, how is the new normal life in Texas?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, thanks again for having me, by the way, it’s great to be back on your great program. And Texas, we had a few bad months but the governor here looked over to Florida and realized that he actually could find a little bit of courage and so it’s basically been normal here for quite a long time. There are certainly some messages of the old regime with masks and people being nervous but basically you wouldn’t notice anything here, I think, these days.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah, I’ve escaped to Mexico. I know a lot of people are escaping to Mexico but I do have a plan B or C that I’ve thought about going back to the US and the only places that I would go would be somewhere like Texas or Florida or similar such states. So to talk about Ukraine and Russia, so where was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, it hasn’t happened as it was scheduled. In fact, somebody I think it was Garland Nixon posted a funny little tweet saying that, “Now the US is going to sanction Russia for not invading on the right schedule.” So that may well be what happens, it hasn’t invaded on their schedule. In fact, off camera, we were talking about a tweet that you retweeted from a guy I studied when I was in grad school, Edward Luttwak, who made the great point that the US intelligence community is claiming that Russia is about to have a full scale invasion of not just Eastern Ukraine but Ukraine and Kiev. And he said that the reckless gambling would go against the entire history of Putin’s behavior that we’ve seen so far and he says, “I’m not buying it.” So when someone of his stature, who’s not in anyone’s real camp says something like that, I think it’s time to listen to him. And that was a welcome tweet, I think.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah, I’ve also studied Luttwak in graduate school and that’s someone to take his opinion. The situation in Ukraine is complicated and there are a lot of variables at play, the ones that stick out for me include the existential threat posed to Russia of Ukraine joining NATO, putting in their nuclear missiles and stationing them. And that’s a clear red line for Russia. Then we have energy and pipeline games and there’s a whole host of issues, there are irredentist issues regarding the breakaway republics. For you, what are some key geopolitical points here to understand that are driving the Ukraine crisis?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, there’re a couple of very important things I think, and most people paying attention will recognize the first, which is the media once again is absolutely abysmal. The mainstream media in the US and most of Europe is abysmal. It’s essentially the US media is taking the role of stenographers from the intelligence community, they’re not checking anything that’s reported, they’re doing the exact same things they did in the run up to war with Iraq, which is just repeating the most outlandish statements of people in the administration and in the think tank world in DC. So they’ve done an absolutely abysmal job and in fact Matt Taibbi has a good piece on his Substack today, just blasting the media for its behavior, for its performance.
So I think that’s important but the one thing that we try to talk about on the Ron Paul Liberty Report every day, which is something that the media would never tell you. And that is that the current crisis in Ukraine, Russia, Eastern Ukraine was precipitated by US interventionism. They don’t want to admit this, they don’t want to talk about it but as the kids say, “We’ve got the receipts.” We’ve got the video of then Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland in the middle of the Maidan Square, handing out food to people who were intent on overthrowing the government.
And on this is a point I made once on the Liberty Report, imagine if January 6th in America really was an insurrection and not just some goofy guys with Buffalo horns on their heads. Imagine it really was an insurrection and a senior Russian government official was down there, handing out food, egging them on and even as we know from the telephone call that was intercepted, even deciding who would run America after the insurrectionists were successful. Imagine how Americans would react to that? Yet this is exactly what happened in Ukraine in 2014 and you just never hear about it.
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Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah, that’s a key point. The Orange Color Revolution, I wrote my thesis on color revolutions back in Geneva. And what about the issue of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO? I think I heard some of Ukrainian officials backpedaling saying they might rethink that. Because that would create, I’ve heard, a first strike capability for the US where Russia wouldn’t be able to defend itself because at that point, NATO and the West could virtually take out all of Russia’s military installations and they’d have no way to defend themselves. That’s one thing I think about, what are some other key issues regarding Ukraine, NATO, US and Russia?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, the funny thing about Washington’s foreign-policy establishment, aside from them being virtually wrong at every single turn, is the fact that in their mind, the only country that has a right to have security interests, to be concerned about existential issues, as you mentioned earlier, is the United States, no one else’s security matters at all except for ours. And that would be fine but you have to realize that other countries face the same issues and as you point out, having Ukraine in NATO would raise objectively a very serious security concern for Russia. Particularly considering the [belacos 00:07:26] statements coming out of Washington for how long, since the reset back under Hilary Clinton, I would say since the end of the Cold War. So you have an openly hostile west denying any kind of validity to Russia security concerns, it’s a recipe for disaster.
As far as Ukraine joining NATO. Well, technically that shouldn’t be allowed according to NATO’s charter because the country has a border of dispute with Russia in the Crimea issue. And even you might say in Donbas, there is a disputed border in that area. So technically they shouldn’t be eligible for NATO membership anyway. But of course, who follows rules anymore? But the person you mentioned, that was the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and he did float that idea out there, “Maybe we can back off a little bit from NATO.” And he was immediately slammed down and Zelenskyy, the president now was asked, I think it was today, about NATO and he said, “We have to guarantee our security and NATO is that guarantee.” So there’s no official back down but there certainly is something that, as we can tell at least, is on the minds of people.
Geopolitics & Empire:
And I want to go back to what you mentioned about the media. And for the people who understand, it’s a total repeat of Saddam Hussein and Colin Powell and weapons of mass destruction. But for me, things just seem to have gone to a further extreme where it’s cartoonish really, the level of the propaganda from the Western side. I mean, your thoughts on the cartoonishness of all of these allegations, as well as there’s censorship that we’re dealing with?
Daniel McAdams:
That’s a perfect term, cartoonish. I remember very well because I was working for Dr. Paul on Capitol Hill as we were moving toward the Iraq war. And I remember how devastating it was for our side when Colin Powell went to the UN and made his presentation. And it wasn’t devastating because his presentation was so convincing because it wasn’t, we knew at the time that it was garbage. It was devastating for us because of his stature, he’s perceived as a serious thinker, as someone with a lot of moral integrity. Well, what we saw on Thursday, which is when Secretary of State Tony Blinken went to the UN Security Council and did his best Colin Powell presentation was exactly, as you say, cartoonish, it was absurd, the points he made were laughable and his outline of how Russia will attack Ukraine was laughable.
And at the very end, the cherry on top of his ridiculous performance was that, “Well, Russia may not invade after all and if they don’t, we’ll be glad that they followed our guidelines and reversed their course.” So basically wanting to take political credit for something that the Russians have said all along they have no intention of doing. It’s like if I keep claiming you’re going to shoot me and you say, “I’m not going to shoot you,” and you end up not shooting me and you’re saying, “Well, I’m certainly go glad you changed course on that shooting me thing.”
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah. And since you brought up Blinken, I had that question as well. So he was there at the UN accusing Russia and every day they’re saying they’re about to carry out a false flag operation. That’s one point where for the longest time anyone talking about false flag is a conspiracy theorist so I guess now Blinken and Washington, the government are conspiracy theorists. And as well, I was reading in Politico, the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, he as well was accusing Russia of false flag operations. And if we talk about false flags, I would think it would come first from Kiev or Washington, they’re the ones who most carry out these kinds of things. The last time was the chemical provocations in Syria, those were false flags by the West. And so there are some reports that a kindergarten was shelled today by the Ukrainian side, possibly, which may have been a false flag attempt. What are your thoughts on this false flag talk and whether someone will actually try to stage a false flag?
Daniel McAdams:
I think it’s a very important and very concerning point. And we’ve said all along, “Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. Russia does not want to take Kiev. It doesn’t want to have the responsibility of this basket case of a country.” But that doesn’t mean that Russia will not abide by its very clearly stated position that we will intervene in Donbas if Kiev starts attacking Russian citizens of which there are, some say, as many as 750,000 Russian passport holders living in that part of Eastern Ukraine and Russia has been very clear, “We will protect these people.” And that’s why I am still very concerned because anything could happen. The shelling of a kindergarten is just the kind of a thing that can raise tensions to a high level.
Now there has been shelling going on since 2015 on both sides of this. And it does happen, there has been an uptick lately, the US has pulled its OSCE monitors out of the area, I think other Western countries have done the same. So there’s a real danger here and it happened remember in, was it in Iraq? And in Kosovo. There’s a danger when you pull out the monitors, even that there may be one or two honest ones that might be able to say, “No, those shells came from the Ukrainian side, it wasn’t from the pro-Russia side.” There is a huge danger and I see an uptick right now in this, all it’ll take is a few more kindergartens and maybe a hospital or two to be shelled by Russia that you’ll see some action. So definitely action is very possible but not in the way the US is predicting.
Geopolitics & Empire:
I may be mistaken, I’m not sure if it was my Croatian President Milanović or others who have said that this Ukraine fiasco is nothing more than a wagging of the dog by the Biden administration to distract from domestic problems in America. What are your thoughts there?
Daniel McAdams:
In fact, I think there was an MEP from Croatia that just made a great statement about that. In fact, I just noticed it on Twitter, he made an excellent statement saying that exact same thing. And even President Zeman from the Czech Republic had an interview that came out today where he was talking about, “This is the Iraq war all over again. The US CIA continually lies us into war.” And this is a NATO partner, the president of a NATO partner country saying, “These guys are full of crap. They’re doing nothing but lying to us and they continuously lie.”
Geopolitics & Empire:
I also had a question since I mentioned Biden. We’ve heard in the past, Joe Biden, I think when he was at the CFR talking about how he had a deal with the Ukrainian president and if he didn’t do what he wanted, he would withhold funds, 5 million or something. And then we have the issues with Hunter Biden connection in corruption in Ukraine. And so what effect do you think the Hunter Biden and Joe Biden dealings in corruption have on the current Ukraine crisis?
Daniel McAdams:
Yeah, I think there’s a lot there and I love to talk about it in the US media. But it was a $1 billion loan guarantee that was on the table when Joe Biden said, “You have to fire this chief prosecutor or you don’t get the money.” And apparently what the chief prosecutor was doing was investigating his own son, Hunter Biden’s nefarious activities in Ukraine. He is a well known oil and gas expert, for 50,000 a month, he was being paid. But I think there is a lot of corruption and I think probably Biden is afraid of having some of this get out. I don’t know to what extent it drives it, I think certainly to a very large extent what drives the current conflict is the fact that you have the holdovers from the Obama administration, which was behind the 2014 coup, they’re the ones in the driver’s seat right now.
I mean, anyone who thinks of Biden himself is really in the driver’s seat, I don’t know about that. I mean, I’ve seen the guy talk and I don’t know, he’s not even in the passenger seat, right? He’s in the backseat. You have people like Jake Sullivan who is increasingly coming under suspicion for his role in the fake Russiagate, spying on Candidate Trump and then President Trump affair. These people are deeply corrupt and deeply compromised people but they are so absolutely full of themselves and certain of their rights, so full of hubris, that is a really dangerous combination.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah. You mentioned NATO and I caught the news today or yesterday, some European MEP, I think from some Nordic country, Heidi something, she was discussing and promoting the idea of opening NATO membership to all of the European member states now. How do you think these events will affect the EU and NATO? Some people are talking about this splitting NATO and Europe, maybe it will strengthen, maybe it will push Europe towards the trajectory of a EU army. I mean, what are your thoughts on NATO and EU at this stage?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, someone I respect very much is Colonel Doug MacGregor, he’s an old friend of mine and he’s got a very strong view about this. So he views this as the beginning of the end of NATO. He feels that there is a realization now when you see what objectively is true, a lot of Russian forces on the move, whether they were all involved in military exercises or whether it was a show of force or whether some combination of the two. Very clearly Colonel MacGregor said on Sky News Australia, that basically the Russians have been able to control the airspace from the Gulf of Finland to the Black Sea. And his view, and I tend toward listening certainly to what he says, is that Germany is going to start realizing that this Eurasia sphere is an area that the Americans are not capable of protecting them in.
They will not have the security guaranteed by the US that they may have had in the past and this is a great example. But if Putin had decided, “We’re going in, we’re taking the whole place.” There is literally nothing the United States could have done to stop it. We had, as the Colonel put out, some light infantry forces and he called it, “Almost a joke.” So there is going to be a realization among serious European countries, and I don’t mean the Baltics certainly because they’re not serious, that NATO is a paper tiger, it’s incapable of doing what it was actually conceived to do, which is to protect Europe from then Soviet expansionism. It’s a paper tiger and I do hope he’s right in this, he sees the beginning of the end of NATO in this fiasco we’re witnessing now.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah, it’s funny you mentioned paper tiger. Well, I was going to ask if you would agree that many of my past guests, Patrick Armstrong, who I interviewed, Canadian former defense, well, he worked in defense policy. He used the term, when I talk with him about NATO, paper pussycat or paper tiger. And I have interviewed Russian military expert Andrei Martyanov and so many others that come to the consensus that Russia militarily has the upper hand, in a conventional war Russia wins hands down against NATO or the West in Europe, especially with the assistance from China. And so would you agree?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, it’s their backyard just as if we went to war with Mexico that was backed by Paraguay or something. I mean, it’s their back door, it’s their backyard, it’s the area they care about most. And when you’re talking about… The US military is the most expensive on the planet, we spend an enormous amount of money but the money we spend in the military is not going predominantly toward readiness, predominantly toward having a strong fighting force or having the best weapons.
The enormous amount of money that the United States spends on its military is toward extremely expensive, extremely high-tech weapons systems that do not work, F-35 and so on and so on and so on, go down the line. The military industrial complex gets rich off of these very expensive, very highly technical pieces of military work. And my old friend, Chuck Spinney, who’s been in his career in the Pentagon studying this and he still writes a lot about procurement and how it leads toward the US having a weaker rather than a stronger military. Certainly someone to talk with about this. But we have a very large and expensive military but it’s not the kind of military we need, certainly not to protect this country.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah, it’s interesting. I think Finland just bought 64 F-35s.
Daniel McAdams:
Good luck with that. Have fun. Someone made the joke because one of them went off of a carrier a couple weeks ago and someone said, “They have more success as a submarine than as a fighter jet right now.”
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah. And my past guest Martyanov discusses how the Russian, I think SU-35 they’re called, they’re much better than F-35s. I read today also that Lukashenko just said that he and Putin or Russia and Belarus are discussing what to do with the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. What do you think is going to happen there? Is that just going to be an issue that festers for a while or that it might be incorporated into Russia?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, all of the brilliant Russia watchers inside the US Beltway will disagree but the fact of the matter is, if you look at Putin’s behavior objectively as head of Russia, he’s not a gambler, he’s not a risk taker. In fact, he gets a lot of flack from people in Russia because he isn’t. And the exact issue you mentioned, the recognition of these two republics, that was put forth by the Communist Party, which is the largest opposition party in Russia. They are pushing him, some of the MPs from his own party are pushing him to be more radical but he’s always been a very cautious leader.
And what I think is that if he, and this is speculation, but from everything that I’ve seen, that is his Ace card and I don’t think he wants to play it now, I don’t think it’s a card that needs to be played, I think he can start raising… If we can dial this down some, I think the issue that will be raised and Blinken made the issue today, of course he lied about it at the UN Security Council, but the issue of the Minsk accords. If we bring this to the table, which of course provided for a level of autonomy for the breakaway republics, if we return to a Minsk with Ukraine acting in better faith than they have in the past, I think for Putin that is far preferable than basically playing that final Ace or even call it a nuclear option, not technically, not literally but it would be that. So I don’t think it’s a time that he’s going to play it right now, I could be wrong.
Geopolitics & Empire:
It’s not always easy for me to come up with the best questions or all the necessary questions. So before I continue, what other issues are important for you when we’re talking about Ukraine, US, Russia and the wider region, China even?
Daniel McAdams:
I just think it’s how far things have gone in the Western media. I watch these people in the reporting and it is so bad, it is so brainless. And this goes from Fox News on the right to MSNBC on the left. I mean, all of these stations, all of these outlets are united in this very ignorant pro-war stance. All of the experts in DC are always wrong all the time and when you have an empire that’s based on lies, it’s inherently weak, it’s inherently subject to implosion. And I think we’re seeing the tail land of the US empire. I made a comment on our show the other day, after World War II, the British didn’t realize at first that their empire was gone, they still thought they ruled the world and then they woke up and realized, “Oh, guess what? We don’t have the power we thought.” And that’s, I think, how it’s going to happen with the US. I think it is essentially over, they just don’t realize it yet because they all still believe all the BS and all the lies that they’re telling each other.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Well, I mean, since you mentioned that, I’d agree with you. One of the reasons I left the US 15 years ago, for many reasons, but it was also because I saw this decline. And there are different versions, people think it’s going to be some big collapse or that’ll just be like a slow fart. So what are your thoughts on the implications of the collapse? We could see people talk about things as extreme as the Civil War and disintegration in that sense or will it just be like what happened in Britain’s case where things just slowly decline?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, I think again, a lot of the so called foreign policy analysts and Russia experts, they tend to look at the world through a very small tunnel and they tend to talk to each other in an echo chamber. But I think if you step back and you look at the larger picture, which of course your podcast is dedicated to geopolitics, I think in the US the end will be precipitated not by a military defeat necessarily but by a defeat that comes at the hands of a broken economy, of a Federal Reserve that has printed money figuratively and literally to the trillions and trillions and trillions to the point where the US can no longer sustain.
And we’re already seeing the squeeze on the middle class with inflation, the inflation tax is the most evil tax because certainly it hurts the poor and the middle class more than it hurts the wealthy. If steak goes up by three bucks or if a hamburger goes up by a buck, a pound is not going to hurt Jeff Bezos but it’s going to hurt the guy who’s working for a living. This is where it ends, it ends with the Fed because the Fed created this massive bubble, the Fed created the military bubble, we wouldn’t be able to spend a trillion dollars a year on this military machine if it wasn’t from funny money produced by the Fed. So it all comes down to economics, it will simply implode on the weight of its own economic contradictions.
Geopolitics & Empire:
I would totally agree with that. The inflation we’re seeing, in my lifetime I haven’t seen anything compared to what we’re seeing now and it’s just going to get really bad. And that’s actually one of the things that prevents me from coming back to the US is this increasing inflation and high cost of living where here in Mexico, it’s much more manageable. Do you think at some point, by hook or by crook, by some stupid mistake or even a false flag, the West may end up in a real serious military conflict configuration with Russia, perhaps some of its allies and the East? And whether the danger of it being a localized proxy war in Europe or even something bigger that could lead to escalating to the nuclear threshold or some type of global war?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, I think that’s always possible but I do think that the US knows very well, as we talked about just a few minutes ago, this is a war it cannot win, it doesn’t have the ability to get troops and to get equipment there in time to do what it needs to do. This is a war it can’t win and that’s why even President Biden, for all of his problems and I don’t know how extensive they are but we can probably guess, he has even said, “I’m not sending troops to Ukraine,” meaning I’m not getting involved militarily. He’s going to maybe add some more sanctions or something. The US knows that there is no military option with Russia over Ukraine so what’s left is just trash talking and harsh rhetoric and I think the Russians have seen through it.
I forget which official it was, but there was a Russian official that recently said, “We don’t give an S-H-I-T about your sanctions.” And I think that’s probably the mood, they’re ready to call the bluff and it is a big bluff. So I think there is a risk, there’s always a risk of error. You talk about grad school and international relations, you probably read Graham Ellison who did a great analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis. There are mistakes that can be made, especially when you’re mirror imaging your own values onto that of your adversary and when you’re talking in echo chamber. But I think in a rational sense, the US understands that this is an impossibility. We lost in Afghanistan after 20 years so I don’t know that it’s time to start taking on a Russia and a Russia that at least in terms of rhetoric is being backed by China right now.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah. And speaking of China, in terms of world order, where do we go from here? Is the multipolar world emerging now, Russia and China and a new system coming about? What are your thoughts on where we go from here?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, ironically and part partially, I think that these people are just so stupid. The people in charge in the US are just so stupid. But then I have to wonder, “Are they stupid or are they evil or what combination?” Because everything that the US claims it’s trying to prevent, it’s actually promoting. If the US wants to undermine China, the last thing you do is push China and Russia into each other’s arms, which is what it’s doing. And the same is true with Iran, we have tight sanctions all around Iran and so China says, “Hey, we’ll buy some of your oil. Let’s get together, let’s have some trade.” So everything that the US claims, that these brilliant experts claim they’re trying to prevent, they’re actually promoting. So again, stupidity, evil, a combination, who knows?
Geopolitics & Empire:
All right. Do you have any final thought for us then?
Daniel McAdams:
Well, I appreciate the opportunity to talk about this, I think it’s a very serious situation. My concern is that we are being led by idiots, people that are full of themselves, people who make a lot of money off of conflict, who don’t care about the rest of America. We’re tarnished as being pro-Russia when in fact, the people who want to avoid a potentially life threatening for the entire planet nuclear war, are pro-life, are pro-American, it’s pro-American to not want to have a massive trillion dollar military empire protecting everyone else’s borders but our own. So with that, thank you very much for the opportunity to talk to your listeners and I appreciate the time.
Geopolitics & Empire:
All right. And just one more note, apart from Ronpaulinstitute.org, is there any other website or project that we should know about?
Daniel McAdams:
Yeah. Monday through Friday at noon Eastern Time, we do a live Ron Paul Liberty Report on YouTube and you can find it just by typing in Ron Paul Liberty Report. Every day, Monday through Friday, Friday is economics, Monday through Thursday are everything else. So we appreciate anyone who wants to come in and watch and subscribe to our channel.
Geopolitics & Empire:
Yeah. And also I would recommend checking them out on Odysee because YouTube is censoring, I just got another strike after being released yesterday. So I can’t post for a week and I’ve got three months probation. And then again, everyone subscribe to Ron Paul Institute on Twitter, their newsletter, I think I just subscribed to your email list and you’re pending great analysis through the newsletter. And again, thank you for returning to Geopolitics & Empire.
Daniel McAdams:
Thank you.
Outro:
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About Daniel McAdams
Daniel served as the foreign affairs, civil liberties, and defense policy advisor to U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, MD (R-Texas) from 2001 until Dr. Paul’s retirement at the end of 2012. From 1993-1999 he worked as a journalist based in Budapest, Hungary, and traveled through the former communist bloc as a human rights monitor and election observer.
*Podcast intro music is from the song “The Queens Jig” by “Musicke & Mirth” from their album “Music for Two Lyra Viols”: http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)
