Author: Nikola Mikovic
Nikola Mikovic
Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. His area of focus is the ongoing conflict in the Donbass, as well as relations between Russia and former Soviet republics. Nikola also covers Russia's involvement in Syria and Libya. He writes for several publications such as Diplomatic Courier, Asia Times, CGTN, Tsarizm, Global Comment, among others.
Armenia, Russia’s nominal ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has started turning its back on Moscow. Quite aware that it cannot count on the Kremlin’s help against its archenemy Azerbaijan, Yerevan seems to be attempting to distance itself from Russia, and to develop close ties with other regional and global actors in order to improve its positions in the turbulent South Caucasus region. Prior to the recent CSTO summit in Yerevan, a pro-Western opposition alliance staged a protest calling for Armenia’s exit from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. During the CSTO session, it became quite obvious that Yerevan…
Russia continues suffering defeat and humiliation in Ukraine. Even though the Kremlin declared partial mobilization on September 21, and reportedly deployed a significant number of new troops to the Eastern European country, Russian Armed Forces did not even attempt to defend Kherson – a city that, from the Russian perspective, is an integral part of Russia. Instead, since mid-October, Moscow has been gradually preparing its population for Russia’s withdrawal from the strategically important city. As a result of Russian retreat, the entire left bank of the Dniepr River, as well as parts of northern Crimea, will now be within the…
Kazakhstan – Russia’s most important ally in Central Asia – seems to be attempting to distance itself from the Kremlin. Although the energy-rich nation is unlikely to leave Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) any time soon, Astana is expected to strengthen its decades-old “multi-vector” foreign policy. Despite reports that Kazakhstan has begun to “slow down” its participation in the EAEU, the Central Asian nation still has very close economic ties with the Russian Federation. It is estimated that more than 13,000 Russian companies operate in Kazakhstan, while at least 80 percent of Kazakh…
Iran is flexing its military muscles near the Azerbaijani border. The Islamic Republic is expending all forms of cooperation with Armenia, aiming to increase its influence in the South Caucasus, and also to prevent the construction of the Nakhchivan Corridor – a route that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with Turkey via Armenian territory. Tehran is concerned about the growing presence of the United States and the European Union in Armenia. That is one of the reasons why Iranian leadership recently expressed its dissatisfaction with the European Union’s civil mission that is expected to be deployed to the landlocked nation’s border…
Recent meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko have once again raised fears in the West that Belarus might get directly involved in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian troops have already started arriving to the former Soviet republic, as the two allied nations began forming a joint military group, allegedly to bolster Belarus’ security. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, put forward a proposal to send an international observer mission to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in order to reduce the risk of provocations and of Belarus entering the war on Russia’s side. Moscow’s…
When the cat’s away, the mice will play. Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has opened up an opportunity for countries such as Iran and Turkey to increase their influence in the South Caucasus – a region that has traditionally been in the Russian geopolitical orbit. But how will a new reality affect positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan – archenemies that fought the 44-day war in 2020, and that are now struggling to resolve their numerous disputes? Since November 2020, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement in Moscow, the…
The Nord Stream pipelines sabotage could mark the end of the existing global energy order. Moscow will now seek to move its energy flows eastward, while European countries will have to find a sustaining alternative to Russian natural gas, oil, and coal. Over the past few months, Russian gas supplies to Europe have been rather limited. Nord Stream 2 never became operational, and Moscow reduced gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 allegedly due to a turbine issue. On September 3rd, Russia indefinitely halted gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Despite war, gas transit through Ukraine went…
The Kremlin’s decision to hold referenda on joining Russia in the Donbass, as well as in southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, will undoubtedly lead to an escalation of the conflict. Once the de jure Ukrainian territories become de facto part of the Russian Federation, Moscow will have to fight the war on its own soil. Plebiscites in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic, the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are scheduled to take place on September 23-27, which means that the four regions are expected to formally join Russia by early October. But Ukraine, as well as…
The Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) remains silent while Ukraine continues shelling Russian territory. The military alliance also turns a blind eye to Azerbaijani actions inside Armenia, another full-fledged CSTO member, while Russian allies Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan seem to be on the brink of war. After Russian forces withdrew from the Kharkiv region in Eastern Ukraine, following the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the former Soviet republic’s army reached the Russian border and started bombing critical infrastructure inside Russia. According to Article 4 of the CSTO Treaty, “an act of aggression (an armed attack that threatens security, stability, territorial integrity, and sovereignty)…
The West seems to be pressuring all Balkan nations that are still out of the European Union to join the Open Balkan Initiative – an economic and political zone whose current members are Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia. Since the EU’s enlargement process has stalled, the Balkans is expected to remain in a state of limbo, while a new form of the regional cooperation will preserve the Balkan countries in the Western geopolitical orbit. In 2019 leaders of Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia agreed to create an economic zone, which would “further improve political and economic relations and strengthen cultural…