Author: Nikola Mikovic

The Ukrainian military is reportedly preparing to launch another large-scale offensive against Russian forces in the southeast of the country. The West, for its part, continues supplying Ukraine with all kinds of weapons. But will that help the war-torn nation in its ambitions to establish full control over all territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea? “I don’t know how tanks will help Ukraine”, said Croatian President Zoran Milanović, talking about German decision to send Leopard tanks to the Eastern European country. “Maybe Germany is at war with Russia again, then good luck to them, maybe it will work out better…

While the West firmly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty, the European Union and the United States seem to pressure Serbia to implicitly recognize secession of its own territory. Brussels and Washington reportedly push Belgrade to reach a deal with Kosovo – Serbia’s breakaway province that unilaterally declared independence in 2008 – in such a way that would allow the authorities in Pristina to join all international organizations, including the United Nations and NATO. Even though five EU members – Spain, Romania, Greece, Slovakia and Cyprus – have not recognized Kosovo as an independent state, Brussels expects Belgrade and Pristina to state by…

Russian troops suffer humiliation not only in Ukraine, but also in the South Caucasus. Tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the Russian peacekeepers’ zone of responsibility, threaten to escalate and lead to a new round of violence in the turbulent region. How would such an outcome affect Moscow’s positions in Armenia and Azerbaijan? As a result of the 44-day war the two Caucasus nations fought in 2020, some 2,000 Russian peacekeeping troops have been deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh – a mountainous region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, although it has been under the Armenian control since 1994, when the two sides ended…

Despite ongoing preparations, Belarusian military is still not ready to actively participate in the Ukraine war. That, however, does not mean that the Kremlin, with or without Belarusian Armed Forces’ help, will not eventually launch another suicide mission, using Belarusian territory to allegedly capture northern Ukraine. The recent visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Belarus has sparked speculation about the possibility of Minsk’s direct involvement in Russia’s so-called “special military operation” (SMO). Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin signed a protocol on amendments to the 1997 agreement on joint regional military security between Russia and Belarus, although…

Armenia, Russia’s nominal ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has started turning its back on Moscow. Quite aware that it cannot count on the Kremlin’s help against its archenemy Azerbaijan, Yerevan seems to be attempting to distance itself from Russia, and to develop close ties with other regional and global actors in order to improve its positions in the turbulent South Caucasus region. Prior to the recent CSTO summit in Yerevan, a pro-Western opposition alliance staged a protest calling for Armenia’s exit from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. During the CSTO session, it became quite obvious that Yerevan…

Russia continues suffering defeat and humiliation in Ukraine. Even though the Kremlin declared partial mobilization on September 21, and reportedly deployed a significant number of new troops to the Eastern European country, Russian Armed Forces did not even attempt to defend Kherson – a city that, from the Russian perspective, is an integral part of Russia. Instead, since mid-October, Moscow has been gradually preparing its population for Russia’s withdrawal from the strategically important city. As a result of Russian retreat, the entire left bank of the Dniepr River, as well as parts of northern Crimea, will now be within the…

Kazakhstan – Russia’s most important ally in Central Asia – seems to be attempting to distance itself from the Kremlin. Although the energy-rich nation is unlikely to leave Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) any time soon, Astana is expected to strengthen its decades-old “multi-vector” foreign policy. Despite reports that Kazakhstan has begun to “slow down” its participation in the EAEU, the Central Asian nation still has very close economic ties with the Russian Federation. It is estimated that more than 13,000 Russian companies operate in Kazakhstan, while at least 80 percent of Kazakh…

Iran is flexing its military muscles near the Azerbaijani border. The Islamic Republic is expending all forms of cooperation with Armenia, aiming to increase its influence in the South Caucasus, and also to prevent the construction of the Nakhchivan Corridor – a route that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with Turkey via Armenian territory. Tehran is concerned about the growing presence of the United States and the European Union in Armenia. That is one of the reasons why Iranian leadership recently expressed its dissatisfaction with the European Union’s civil mission that is expected to be deployed to the landlocked nation’s border…

Recent meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko have once again raised fears in the West that Belarus might get directly involved in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian troops have already started arriving to the former Soviet republic, as the two allied nations began forming a joint military group, allegedly to bolster Belarus’ security. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, put forward a proposal to send an international observer mission to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in order to reduce the risk of provocations and of Belarus entering the war on Russia’s side. Moscow’s…

When the cat’s away, the mice will play. Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has opened up an opportunity for countries such as Iran and Turkey to increase their influence in the South Caucasus – a region that has traditionally been in the Russian geopolitical orbit. But how will a new reality affect positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan – archenemies that fought the 44-day war in 2020, and that are now struggling to resolve their numerous disputes? Since November 2020, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement in Moscow, the…